Off-Plan Investment: A Deep Dive into the UK Property Market
The UK property market has proven its resilience, but the last three months have presented a story of two halves. As we move into September, the data points to a recalibration of the market, presenting a unique window of opportunity for off-plan investors. At Portico Invest, we believe that understanding the latest trends is key to making informed decisions that deliver long-term value.
Trends from the Last 3 Months: A Tale of Resilience and Readjustment
The spring and early summer saw a surge in market activity, with new property listings hitting a seven-year high. Following a busy first quarter, the market showed solid growth in May 2025. According to Nationwide, average UK house prices rose by 3.5% compared to the previous year, with a particular buzz around the North West, where affordable property and major regeneration projects drove a 14% growth in agreed sales.
This momentum continued into June, which typically sees modest price growth. However, this June was different. We saw a rare dip in asking prices by 0.3% month-on-month, a trend that accelerated in July. Rightmove’s data revealed a 1.2% drop in average asking prices in July—the sharpest monthly fall since 2002. While this might seem concerning, it’s a direct result of two key factors:
- A Surge in Supply: The number of homes on the market reached a decade-high in June and July. This increased choice for buyers has naturally led to more competitive pricing from sellers.
- Increased Affordability: The Bank of England’s base rate cuts have led to a decrease in average two-year fixed mortgage rates, which fell to 4.53% in July, down from 5.34% a year ago. This, combined with strong wage growth, is boosting buyer confidence and purchasing power.
Upcoming “House-building” Statistics and the Future of Supply
A crucial piece of the puzzle for the off-plan sector is supply. The government’s official “House-building” statistics are due for release in September. These figures will provide invaluable insight into the number of new homes being started and completed in Q2 2025.
Industry experts are keenly awaiting this data, as it will reveal whether the high demand for new-builds is being met by an adequate pipeline of developments. The market has been grappling with elevated build costs, and these statistics will indicate if developers have been able to overcome these challenges to increase the delivery of new homes. A strong supply of new housing is essential for keeping the market healthy and meeting the government’s housing targets.
Predictions for the Next Month and Beyond
Looking ahead to September and the rest of 2025, the forecasts remain cautiously optimistic. Experts from leading agencies have revised their full-year predictions, but the outlook is for stable, rather than explosive, growth.
- Rightmove: Has adjusted its 2025 forecast down to a 2% rise in prices, reflecting the recent market recalibration.
- Zoopla: Predicts a 2.5% rise in prices, with sales volumes expected to be 5% higher than last year.
- Savills: Forecasts a more modest 1.0% increase for 2025, due to a cautious start to the year.
While these figures vary, the consensus is clear: the market is not declining, but stabilizing. The high supply of properties gives buyers more choice, and the easing of affordability pressures is bringing many back to the market. This creates a balanced environment where strategic, well-positioned off-plan developments can thrive.
The Enduring Benefits of Off-Plan Investment
For the astute investor, this market landscape reinforces the core benefits of off-plan purchases.
- Fixed Pricing & Capital Appreciation: By securing a property at today’s price, investors can benefit from capital appreciation during the build period, which can be significant, especially in high-demand areas.
- Lower Maintenance Costs: New-builds are constructed to the latest energy efficiency standards, leading to lower running costs and a 10-year new build warranty, which provides peace of mind.
- First-to-Market Appeal: Upon completion, your property is a brand-new asset in high demand from tenants and future buyers alike.
At Portico Invest, we specialize in identifying meticulously researched off-plan developments with maximum potential for capital appreciation. In a market where precision and insight are paramount, our expertise helps you navigate these trends and build a high-performing property portfolio for the long term.